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The Rise and Rise of China
by David MacGregor
In my last editorial, "Living in a Topsy Turvy World", I wrote
about my experience in Lijiang, a beautiful, historic old town in
south-west China.
In November 2004, I wrote of my first experience of China, in
Beijing and Chongqing - in "A Most Unlikely Freedom Haven".
[Also on the Autonomist, here and here.]
In fact, my current three month sojourn in China is my fifth
trip to this country since May 2004. And I have to say it has
opened my eyes in many surprising ways. It has also caused me to
reappraise many assumptions I had about the place, and to ponder
the likely future of this huge country - and its impact on the
rest of the world.
I'm back in Chongqing now, with three more weeks to go before
departing, and have had a chance to reflect on what I've
experienced and to try to make sense of it all.
Yesterday I visited an historic building, turned into a museum,
which records the large immigrations of various ethnic groups
into Chongqing. But it was the drive there, in the taxi, that got
me thinking.
We were driving from Nan Ping, over the Yangzte River, to the
city centre - and doing 90 km/hour, which is quite common in this
city without traffic cops and published speed limits.
When I first visited this city in September 2004, I was very
afraid of the taxis. It seemed that stepping into one was to
enter a lawless zone, where anything goes, and where your life
could end at any moment. You have to drive in this place to
really know what I'm talking about.
There are lanes on the roads, but nobody observes them. Cars
weave in and out of these phantom lines in a constant effort to
gain some advantage - at quite hair-raising speeds, and with the
constant use of the car horn.
There is a dearth of traffic lights, so most intersections are
negotiated simply by wriggling your way through - with no
apparent road rules as guidance.
Pedestrians freely mingle with the traffic, so the Chinese have
never heard the term "jaywalking"! And "zebra" crossings appear
to have no meaning in real life - as venturing out on to one in
no way ensure cars will stop for you. However, the traffic is
most forgiving of people, tolerating them in ways inconceivable
in most western cities.
Night time is another matter. All the vehicles have headlights,
but perhaps only 70% actually use them - including buses. And you
have to watch out for those damned covered motor-rickshaws, which
seem to exist in a safety standards time warp - judging by the
physical state of most of them.
Then there's the buses! I tried to avoid them where possible -
as they are terribly overcrowded, not to mention the distinct
lack of leg room between the seats. Besides, with taxis being so
cheap, buses seemed so plebeian.
Yes, the driving is chaotic - but so is the parking. I've never
seen such creative parking in my life. People parked right on the
corner of intersections. Cars parked on the bends in roads. Cars
parked in all the areas westerners would assume were "no parking"
zones. And not one parking meter in sight! Western local city
bureaucrats would have a field day here, trying to get order
into, and revenue out of, the place.
However, with all this apparent disorganisation on the roads,
don't get the impression it is really so. No, not at all, as I
have learnt. The initial impression of chaos turns out to be a
form of order in its own way. And what I've found, now that I've
been here a few times, is that although there are no apparent
speed limits, rules of "engagement" and so on, the traffic still
works - and surprisingly, I didn't see one traffic accident, nor
any "dings" in the many new cars populating the roads.
But back to my visit to the immigration museum.
I wasn't able to read much of the text, being as it was mostly in
Chinese. However, there were plenty of photos and illustrations,
not to mention tools and artefacts of trade and every day living
on display. There were also full-sized recreations of town life
giving examples of the existing social order at the time.
What became immediately apparent was the long history the Chinese
have had of trading and doing business. It's in their blood. And
I realised that the "blip" of communism, starting with the
revolution of 1949, was but an aberration on an otherwise highly
organised and productive society.
Communism was bound to fail of course, but its demise was given a
"boost" in the late 70s, by Deng Xiaoping, who was the first
leader of the post-Mao period. He basically reversed the
collectivist nature of enterprise in China, and ushered in the
practical free market. The "new" Communism.
China hasn't looked back since.
The "market" is everywhere. Whether you're talking about the
hundreds of shoeshine vendors and home-made food sellers, or the
house-front mini-shops, workshops and hairdressing salons, or the
bustling shops and department stores - everyone, it seems, is in
business of some sort. And if you're not in business, then you're
out peddling your labour on the streets - if you don't have a
job.
Labour-for-hire is everywhere. Groups of men sit around with
their mini-tool kits around their waists, or in in a bag, waiting
for someone to hire them. Folk from the country walk around with
long poles, which are used for carrying stuff - on demand.
The city skyline is riddled with construction cranes - and work
goes on 24 hours a day. I've never seen so many apartments being
built at one time. Most the workers appear to be migrants from
the country - and are no doubt working for minimum wages.
A typical manual worker here earns around 400-600 yuan each month
- or around US$50-$75. Not exactly a king's ransom. But in this
non-welfare state, you either work or starve. It's as simple as
that.
The contrasts are amazing. One minute you can be walking around
a first-world department store, with literally everything you can
get in the west. Then you can be walking around the market, where
chickens are slaughtered on demand, and where strange body parts
are bought for their "health" properties.
You can eat in the most sophisticated of restaurants, with
impeccable service, or you can eat noodles in a local street
cafe, sitting on an old plastic stool.
You can walk down the street and see trendy young women strutting
their stuff, while their poor country-cousins shuffle past in
their continuing struggle to make a living.
You can turn on TV to watch "Super Girl" and participate in the
craze for reality TV and pop music, or you can stop and listen
to the street musician demonstrating his talent on some
traditional instrument.
Gaudy neon lights. Chronic air pollution. Girlie magazines and
dubious "playgirl" shops. Street vendors shouting about their
wares - at 6 am in the morning. Four day funeral events, with
loud music at the crack of dawn. Mobile phones everywhere. Food,
food, and more food - and usually very HOT (as is the Sichuan
style). Mah-jong and card playing on every street corner. Pop
music blaring out of shops. Noise everywhere. And, surprisingly,
huge numbers of trees to soften the brazen landscape and provide
shelter from the hot summer sun.
Then there's the hairdressers. And I must say this was a real
experience. I paid 20 yuan (around US$2.50) - which, to my
surprise gave me a 1.25 hour session which included extensive
head massage, upper body massage, double hair wash - and finally
the hair cut itself. This was all carried out in a trendy salon,
with the usual modern music sound track and young people sporting
crazy, multicoloured hair styles. Of course I was interested in
the final result, and I can report that it's one of the best
haircuts I've ever received. Did I mention the ear-cleaning??
This is one bustling, crazy, hectic metropolis. I can only
imagine what Shanghai must be like!
So, what do I make of China? Well, first it has trashed any
impression I had that these people were living under some sort
of miserable dictatorship. These people know how to work and
enjoy themselves - and do both with gusto. I have lived here long
enough, and spent enough time with the locals to get a feel for
their lives and aspirations. I can tell you, in all the essential
ways, these people are as free to live and make a living as you
and I. And if you're wondering how China manages year-in-year-
out GDP of around 9%, I know the answer. They have low overheads.
I'm not talking about low wages, I'm talking about a low state
"overhead" on the lives of ordinary Chinese. If you're an average
worker here, chances are you pay no tax at all. Even if you're
the up and coming middle class, your tax bill (if there is any)
is likely to be miniscule. In fact, I have it on good authority
that most people and companies pay virtually no tax. And if they
do pay tax, it's only on the declared income - not the "hidden"
one.
The Chinese invented the principle of keeping two sets of books.
And they have a vastly superior grasp of the importance of
financial privacy. Sheesh, even a bank will give you a mortgage
without any financial statement of income. If you can't make the
repayments, they simply reclaim the property.
There is no social welfare to speak of. The Chinese government
raises revenue via a VAT of some sort, and various duties and
miscellaneous taxes. But the sheer number of Chinese workers
means this state "overhead" is almost negligible, giving people
virtually 100% control and ownership over their own income.
The Chinese save like you wouldn't believe - even when they are
earning close to nothing. But they are not opposed to a bit of
ostentation, and it is clear to me that aspiration is a much more
common trait than jealousy and envy. If you're rich in China,
then you make sure everybody knows!
Of course, what's most amazing about China is the rate of
transformation. From a North-Korean-like state of poverty to
rapidly rising wealth and prosperity - all in a remarkably short
period of time.
My father always said to look out for China - the "sleeping
dragon". And I have to conclude he was right.
If you think Singapore or Hong Kong are successful, then imagine
China the same way - with all its added size and entrepreneurial
capacity. That's how I see it. I believe China is modelling
itself on the successful Asian "Tiger" economies. China is
turning into a giant Hong Kong.
With its minimal tax overhead, the creative energy of its
millions of citizens is being unleashed in ways almost impossible
(now) in the west.
I can tell you, we're in for a nasty shock in a few years. And I
think it will all come together after the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
I really feel that the Chinese see this event as their "coming
out" ceremony - their debut on the world stage of nations. It's
already all over TV here.
I'm expecting their currency, the yuan/RMB, to be fully floated
by that time, and their banking and investment sectors to be
mostly fully-revamped in line with modern western practices.
Right now, China is building business, trade and diplomatic
relations all over the place. Their rising economic power ensures
that others are listening. And in doing so, they are creating
an alternative power bloc to the Euro-US one. This will have
major ramifications for the future of the world, and not all
scenarios are rosy. There could be a resource "war", as China
consumes more and more of the world's available energy.
Then there's the potential reaction of the existing alpha-nation
the USA, which is unlikely to take being "challenged" lying down.
Then again, it may have no option - as its own economy is being
so downgraded by present (and future?) governments that it may
simply be incapable of competing with the "sleeping dragon".
Other nations will face a similar challenge, as China out-competes them on almost every front. Its competitive edge will
be in the Chinese people's natural talent for business, their
ethic of hard work, their capacity to save, and their low-low tax
burden. It's even possible that a brain-drain could occur—in
the direction of China—as they surge into such industries as
biotech, which is continually being strangled by red tape in the
west.
All this will create a nation-to-nation competitive environment
which can only have two possible outcomes. Either other nations
will be forced to compete and enact the necessary economic
reforms, or they will become increasingly impoverished and
possibly revert to trade war, protectionism and forms of national
socialism as a response.
As an optimist, I'm hoping that China, rising as it has out of
poverty, will create an example of what is possible with copious
amounts of economic freedom.
The only thing that could possibly slow them down, would be the
arrival and implementation of "democracy", which (as we've
experienced in the west) would simply be a front for socialism
and eventual social and economic decline.
Maybe they'll be smarter than us, and over time develop a form of
social order that is not incompatible with freedom. We'll see!
China has many challenges, and its future is far from certain,
but if what I've seen is any indication, then they are headed for
the big-time.
My advice to any freedom seeker is to keep abreast of what is
happening there, as it is bound to have a significant impact on
the rest of the world, and very likely your own life.
—(10/00/05)
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